2009年9月22日星期二

股票的買賣到底是以多長為周期?

  股市每天都有起起跌跌,消息每天也變幻無窮,聽著別人的故事更讓自己寢食不安,人一進入市場中就顯得很躁動。


  華爾街市場給人最深刻的觀感恐怕就是交易員繁忙的手勢,無法讓人平靜下來,難道進入股市就只讓人心浮氣躁嗎?


  浮躁的人往往是買在頂部,卻拋在底部。缺乏的就是對一個公司價值的判斷,更多的卻是“貪婪與恐懼”。有一個很好的辦法,可以幫助改善“浮躁型”的投資模式,只要對股市的波動引入“周期”的概念,往往會很好地克服股市中的“低拋高吸”。


  眾所周知,在我們市場中,最小的交易周期是“天”,在美國,最少的交易周期是“秒”,就是上一秒買入,下一秒就可以賣出。但是上一秒買入的,哪怕下一秒就漲1%,這個操作結果就很快讓人變成世界首富。所以,股票的買賣倒底是以日為周期,還是以“周”“月”“年”為周期?決定了人在股市中的心態。

買了就想漲停板的人肯定是以“日”為周期,這樣的投資者在市場上跑進跑出相當累,但往往是券商佣金和證券印花稅的貢獻人,以年為周期可以參考一年的定期存款利率,選擇幾個好股票,一放一年,從A股的經驗看跑贏定期存款的年份十有八九,即使是一年套住了,兩年扳回還是賺,心態好做得還輕松。


  我個人最推崇的周期是“季”,一年4次左右的操作,最符合A股市場利潤最大化的規律。據新東風無憂價值網行業決策平台統計,去年A股換手率最高的行業是“其他交通設備制造業”,一年換手大約12.7次,但整個行業過去一年下跌25%,而換手最低的石化行業,一年平均漲幅37%,再次驗證了以前的一個總結,即炒的不漲,漲得不炒,而換手4次左右的行業,如鋼鐵、公共服務、傳媒、轎車等一年漲幅都在35%左右,其中轎車達到148%。


  周期太短不好,太長呢?個人認為,只有看清長周期,才能有更長遠的眼界,目前的A股,放到一個新經濟周期,5-8年的這個長周期去看,雖然現在會有起伏,但卻是處在一個長周期的“原點”位置,現在25倍市盈率均值,60倍市盈率中值,放到動態的長周期去看,也處在起飛的原點。去年10月底我說,這樣便宜的股票今後幾年可能都看不到了,但即使指數漲了70%,只是修正了一段不該下跌的錯誤而已,現在仍然是長周期的起始位置。可能每輪經濟周期頭兩年的市場上上下下比較難熬,但之後一定是牛市的繁榮。


  所以投資要講周期,我個人最為推崇的是三個月的中度周期加上五年的長周期,就像三個月定期存款加上五年定期存款相結合的投資。

2009年9月9日星期三

Market crisis 'will happen again'

The world will suffer another financial crisis, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has told the BBC.

"The crisis will happen again but it will be different," he told BBC Two's The Love of Money series.

He added that he had predicted the crash would come as a reaction to a long period of prosperity.

But while it may take time and be a difficult process, the global economy would eventually "get through it", Mr Greenspan added.

"They [financial crises] are all different, but they have one fundamental source," he said.

"That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue."

Speaking a year after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which was followed by a worldwide financial crisis and global recession, Mr Greenspan described the behaviour as "human nature".

He said the current crisis was triggered by the trade in US sub-prime mortgages - home loans given to people with bad credit histories - but he added that any factor could have been the catalyst.

If it were not the problem of these toxic debts "something sooner or later would have emerged", Mr Greenspan said.

Risks

Mr Greenspan, who when he ran the US central bank was hailed as a man who could move markets, also warned that the world's financial institutions should have seen the looming crisis.
"The bankers knew that they were involved in an under-pricing of risk and that at some point a correction would be made," he said.

"I fear too many of them thought they would be able to spot the actual trigger point of the crisis in time to get out."

He also warned that Britain, with its globally-focused economy, would be harder hit than the US by the current recession and collapse in world trade.

"Obviously we've both suffered very considerably but ... Britain is more globally oriented as an economy and the dramatic decline in exports globally and trade generally following the collapse of Lehman Brothers had dramatic effects in the financial system of Britain," Mr Greenspan said.

"It's going to take a long while for you [Britain] to work your way through this."

Road to recovery

In order to prevent the situation arising again financiers and governments should look to clamp down on fraud and increase capital requirements for banks, the former central banker said.

Greenspan view on global economy

Regulations targeting the latter would mean banks would be forced to hold enough money to cover their normal operations and honour withdrawals.

However despite his belief in a brighter future, the former Fed chief did warn that the path to recovery should steer clear of protectionism as applying strict regulations could hamper recent developments that have opened up global trade.

"The most recent endeavour to re-regulate is a reaction to the crisis. The extraordinary impact of these global markets is making a lot of financial people feeling they have lost control.

"The problem is you cannot have free global trade with highly restrictive, regulated domestic markets."

Historic event

During the interview for BBC Two's The Love of Money series, the former Fed chief said the current economic crisis was a "once in a century type of event", and one that he did not expect to witness.

Blamed by some for not doing more to prevent the crisis, Mr Greenspan denied any responsibility for the problems gripping the global economy.

"It's human nature, unless somebody can find a way to change human nature, we will have more crises and none of them will look like this because no two crises have anything in common, except human nature."